The authors define a decision as the choice among alternatives, based on how we value and trade-off their pros and cons, made in the face of uncertainty about what will actually happen. The decision-making process is presented as having three pillars to support the decision maker: –what we prefer, what meets our goals and objectives, and the recognition that preferences are personal to the one making the decision; A–the choices, options, or courses of action that we have, and over which we have some degree of control; and I–what we know about the situation, what we don’t know, how we connect choices to outcomes, and how we deal with uncertainty.  Key components of good decision-making include how to define your goals and objectives, how to incorporate uncertainties that we all face, and how to develop better alternatives, all of which are discussed.  Sophisticated techniques are presented in a way that is accessible to the average decision maker. Probability theory is utilized to improve decisions, and uncertainties are captured in decision trees.  Risk avoidance, risk transfer, and risk mitigation are also discussed.  Readers will gain a clear understanding of how to articulate the goals and objectives that should be the focal point of any decision.weiterlesen